After a fortnight long controversy, on April 30 Hamza Shehbaz son of PM Shehbaz Sharif took the oath of the CM Punjab through court order as reported at https://www.dawn.com/news/
(1)- First and foremost Shehbaz has to realize that his government is not only legal but legitimate too because even if there was alleged US-conspiracy to dislodge Imran-govt it is a matter between US-govt and Pakistan-govt and Member of Parliament (MNAs) have nothing to do with it. Hence no-confidence motion brought by MNAs is legal & legitimate unless these MNAs committed some crime which had a potential of disqualifying them. Because Imran-govt (during about relevant two months when it was in power) never provided any actionable proof of any money trail etc between USA and these MNAs, therefore the govt of Shehbaz Sharif (after no-confidence against Imran-govt) is a legal & legitimate government.
(2)- This is not the case with the Punjab government which may be legal but is illegitimate. There is a principle of jurisprudence that ‘no one should be allowed to take benefit & advantage of his or her wrongs’. The Punjab incumbent CM Hamza got majority with 197 votes with the support of defectors (including Deputy Speaker Mazari from Imran’s party PTI hence they are liable to be disqualified or removed from office) hence the majority support base of Hamza can’t be construed LEGITIMATE. Whatever legal & constitutional subterfuge the higher Judiciary might have done to fulfill the wishes of Shehbaz for installing Hamza as Punjab CM but in the eyes of Imran supporters (crucially in the eyes of Jihadis), the Hamza govt will remain an illegitimate government. Given Pak history, with Pak & Punjab govt under PML-N, now Imran & his supporters are bound to face unnecessary & provocative persecution & harassment which would add fuel to fire.
(3)- By getting the illegitimate government of his son Hamza in Punjab, PM Shehbaz has made things easy for Imran because now Imran need not mobilize supporters so much for Islamabad but mainly at Lahore. But that doesn’t mean that victory would come to Imran that easily. Whatever Imran may say about mobilizing earlier about 2 million and now about 3 million people for march / ‘dharana’ (sit-in) at Islamabad and now even at Lahore, it is a matter of common knowledge in Pakistan too that after some time (even if people are mobilized to considerable extent) most of the general public would fizzle-out and ultimately mostly the Jihadis would remain with him. But these civilian Jihadis have no chance of success unless militant Jihadis join them (because Shehbaz-govt & most of the establishment including Pak military have hidden support of the USA for the simple reason that Imran was taking a pro-Russian stance and that too during Ukraine-war which has become almost a question of life & death for the West led by the USA). Therefore desperate Imran is bound to convert civilian Jihad into militant Jihad
(4)- In a Muslim country like Pakistan which claims to have come into existence (by leaving India) by saying that ‘Pakistan ka matlab kya’ (what is the meaning of Pakistan) – ‘La Ilaha Illallah’, it is not enough for Imran to say that Muslims should fear only Allah and not the USA. Rather the militant Jihadis would join Imran only when (not merely less deadly mix of Jihadi-Islam & anti-US sentiments) but much more deadly mix with the addition of anti-India sentiments are invoked by Imran MAINLY (in addition to the issue of alleged harassment of Indian Muslims in Modi-regime) over Kashmir issue. This is precisely where Imran will get the support of militant Jihadis not merely from Pakistan but also from Afghanistan because they were mainly responsible for sending militant Jihadis after the end of cold war – I in the nineties when USSR was defeated in Afghanistan by militant Jihadis.
(5)- It has two effects. One, it has a potential of influencing the Ukraine war. Second, it would come into existence if Russia feels the need to support Imran on his Kashmir-project, which has now become quite possible due to on-going developments about Ukraine war as given below:-
(i)- The USA (including by Prez Biden’s address of April 28) and the European West (instead of putting boots on ground which is quite possible with princely India as mentioned at https://www.
are wrongly depending merely on supplying more & more arms & ammunition to Ukraine but this meaningless provocative policy will be self- defeating because these supplies can’t be from air & sea (as Russia dominates these) and can be only through land routes which are from the Western border of Ukraine. Moldova land route is mostly blocked due to the Russian military presence in the Russian speaking Transnistria hence only land routes can be from Poland, Slovenia, Hungary and Romania which are vulnerable to Russian air attack. Russia will be constrained (if such provocation continues) to block these routes by establishing a defensible narrow strip for its military presence (wherever necessary) all along this Ukraine’s western border by sending the Russian army from South & North (ally Belarus). Moreover, then these western arms and ammunition, of the West led by the USA, will ultimately fall in Russian hands.
(ii)- The likely prolongation of Ukraine war would be also due to (after Crimea and Donbass) likely further encroachment of Ukraine territory by Russia where Russia may try to separate Moldova from Ukraine by supporting ‘in-between independent region’ from Donetsk to Odessa (where Russian military presence is already there and where in Russian speaking Transnistria, as per Moldova authorities, the false flag attacks have already started either by Russia or by its sympathizers). Hence there is no end in sight, rather Ukraine war is going to prolong which is bound to make Russia desperate under pressure of sanction, military supply etc of the West led by the USA.
(6)- Two desperate leaders Prez Putin and former PM Imran can find common ground only on Kashmir which certainly has a potential of unsettling the West led by the USA (for the simple reason that both India and Pakistan are nuclear countries) and this goes in favor of Putin. The military approach to snatch Kashmir from India is bound to make Imran a hero in Pakistan (like ‘Artagul Gazi’ whom Imran has been recommending to Pakistanis during his regime) and which is bound to bring the crown of Pakistan at his feet. The USA should further know that Europe may clandestinely support this Kashmir flare-up because Europe may like to shift the theater of war from Europe (Ukraine) to South Asia and which may weaken the NATO resolve to take-on Russia in Ukraine.
Therefore Prez Biden would commit blunder if continues to take the on-going political developments of Pakistan lightly where militant Jihadis of AF-Pak are being provided an opportunity (to play a crucial role in shaping the destiny of the world in cold war – II) by PM Shehbaz’s unbecoming love of his son in illegitimately installing Punjab-government of CM Hamza Shehbaz.
Hem Raj Jain
Writer is an author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’ and presently staying in Shakopee, MN, USA
