With former JNUSU president Kanhaiya Kumar’s formal entry into electoral politics, the battle for Begusarai, also known as the ‘Leningrad of Bihar’, has become more interesting
While almost century-old Communist Party of India (CPI), which reached on the verge of political extinction, sees a chance of revival through Kanhaiya Kumar, many believe the man who dared Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi and posed a tough ideological challenge to him, will not be able to leave much impact on the ground.
Blame it on Mahagathbandhan’s unwillingness to spare a seat for the Left party. But, in the eyes of Bihar-watchers, the reality lies somewhere in between these two political assumptions.
Though, Kumar – who shot to fame (or notoriety) after alleged anti-India protest that took place on the campus of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in 2016 – was perhaps the ultimate choice for the Left parties for Begusarai seat, Mahagathbandhan, which comprises Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HUM), did not espouse the idea.
Reliable sources told NH that though Congress pitched for the former JNUSU president’s candidature, RJD did not budge.
When asked the reason behind RJD’s adamant attitude, a Delhi-based CPI activist replied in classic Bhojpuri style, “Kanhaiya has the capacity to kill ‘Kansas’ of Bihar politics.” Although, he refused to name whom he considers as ‘Kansas’ of Bihar politics, it is easy to decode the underlying suggestions. Kanhaiya is seen as a threat not only for the BJP but for the RJD as well, many of his supporters say.
RJD leaders ostensibly cite winnability of the decade-old M-Y equation vis-à-vis division of Bhumihar’s vote in private conversations (presuming BJP will field a Bhumihar leader Giriraj Singh), as the reason for not sharing giving seat to Kumar, but those who know Bihar politics say RJD’s leadership does not want to create a strong competitor who has every characteristic of a charismatic leader.
Plus, RJD leader Tanveer Hasan’s winnability also makes a strong reason against any kind of understanding between Mahagathbandhan and Left parties.
Although, BJP couldn’t finalise its candidate for the seat by the time of publishing this article, it is widely anticipated that Union Minister Giriraj Singh, famous for his outrageous remarks, would indeed be fielded against Kanhaiya.
(Latest reports suggest that unhappy with being shifted to Begusarai, Giriraj Singh refused to fight against Kanhaiya).
Whether Giriraj Singh will fight against Kanhaiya or not and whether Mahagathbandhan will field Tanveer Hasan or not remains to be seen but in a triangular fight, Kanhaiya’s shot at victory remains blurred as the anti-BJP votes would be divided between the Left and Mahagathbandhan. Contrary to the situation, in a two-cornered contest, Kanhaiya has a good chance to spring up a surprise on the BJP.
“He will easily wrest the seat from BJP if Mahagathbandhan stays away from the fight,” said a senior journalist, adding Kanhaiya is regarded as a victim of Modi in this area, therefore many people especially from his caste would cast sympathy vote in his favour.
However, a large chunk of people, especially older and middle-aged people belonging to the upper caste feel uneasy with Kumar’s aggressive brand of progressive politics, youths of Begusarai eulogise Kanhaiya.
“For youngsters, he is a hero, a rebel who challenged the most powerful person of India,” said a veteran journalist.
Going by the caste-based arithmetic, it is being speculated that Kanhaiya would fetch most of his votes from backward and minority community if Mahagathbandhan does not field its candidate. Nearly 3 lakh Muslim voters, along with 2.5 lakh Yadav voters, will play a decisive role in the battle for Begusarai.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, RJD’s Tanveer Hasan stood second. He lost by a narrow margin to Bhola Singh, an erstwhile Communist leader who switched sides to the BJP. With 34.31 % of vote-share, Hasan secured nearly 3,70,000 votes while Bhola Singh got nearly 4,28,000 votes, or 39.72 % of the vote. CPI’s candidate Rajendra Prasad Singh secured third position with 17.87 % vote share and nearly 2 lakh votes.
If put together, the total vote share of the opposition parties is for more than 45 % in Begusarai seat. If Mahagathbandhan decides to support Kanhaiya, he will easily secure more than 40 % of the total vote share, enough to wrest the ‘Leningrad’ from BJP’s fold.
source: NH
