Both BJP and Congress have started preparations for the Lok Sabha elections in Madhya Pradesh. At present Congress holds only three seats while the BJP’s tally is 26. The Congress won only two seats in the 2014 general elections. The victorious candidates were Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia. But their victories in the strict sense cannot be termed as victory of Congress. They owe their election to their personal popularity.
While Kamal Nath since 1980 has never tasted defeat, Scindia too never lost any election. Not only Jyotiraditya, any other member of Scindia family, including his grandmother Rajmata Vijayaraje Scindia, father Madhv Rao Scindia and his aunt Yashodhara Raje Scindia never lost any election. They have the advantage of belonging to Scindia royal family. In fact, Madhav Rao once defeated Atal Behari Vajpayee in Gwalior constituency. Thus, if credit for their victories is given to themselves, one can say that not a single Congress candidate was elected in 2014. But in the bye-election for Ratlam Lok Sabha constituency held in 2015 Congress candidate Kanti Lal Bhuria defeated the BJP candidate.
According to the analysis of the just concluded Vidhan Sabha elections, Congress can now hope to win 12 Lok Sabha seats. They could possibly be Chhindwara, Guna, Ratlam, Dhar, Khargone, Betul, Mandla, Shahdol, Balaghat, Morena, Bhind and Gwalior.
In Madhya Pradesh every Lok Sabha seat has eight segments (assembly constituencies). In all the above-mentioned Lok Sabha constituencies Congress won a majority of assembly seats in Ratlam, Dhar, Khargone, Mandla, Balaghat, Morena, Bhind, Gwalior and Chhindwara Lok Sabha Constituencies. Besides, there are some such Lok Sabha seats where the Congress has won four out of eight segments. The most interesting fact is that among the Lok Sabha seats which the Congress hopes to win majority are reserved constituencies. According to reliable sources, Congress has decided to make one minister and four party MLAs in charge of each Lok Sabha Constituency. This team will be accountable for the party’s performance in each constituency.
BJP too has started preparations for the Lok Sabha polls. Party president Amit Shah has constituted an eight-member team for each constituency. Besides, a team of six members each consists of one in-charge and one convener. During the January 11 and 12 party meeting in Delhi Shah discussed the strategy for the Lok Sabha polls.
It is generally realised that if the party loses even ten Lok Sabha seats in the May 2019 elections it will affect its chances of getting a majority. In view of this possibility the central leadership has decided to pay special attention not only to Madhya Pradesh but also to Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.