If there is one country which hardly needs to be reminded about the importance of military power in deciding not only the political matters but every other matter of mankind, then it is the USA. Hence it is quite intriguing why the USA is not understanding the real problem behind what is happening in Afghanistan. This is all the more surprising when in cold war II the ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ is threatening the ‘liberal Western democracy’ led by the USA and the USA can win this war cold war II only when it takes the lead to reform the UN regarding 4 hierarchies of democratic-secularism as explained below:-
(1)- The USA must be knowing that Pakistan (East & West) got divided in 1971 for the simple reason that Punjabi dominated Pakistan (West Pakistan) never wanted to accept the domination of Bengali Pakistan (East Pakistan) because Punjabi Pakistanis (with ‘special people syndrome’) believe that India was invaded & ruled by their ancestors for about 1,000 years and whichever Muslim is there in Indian subcontinent is due to grace of their these warrior ancestors. But in democracy Punjabis of West Pakistan could never rule because Bengalis of East Pakistan were in comfortable majority in the united Pakistan. The Punjabi Pakistan committed the blunder of adopting democracy which resulted in the division of West & East Pakistan into present Pakistan and Bangladesh in 1971 (with the military intervention of India) especially when these Punjabis knew that from their ally, the USA, there was no real pressure to adopt democracy on any member country of the UN.
(2)- The Taliban are proving to be smarter than Punjabi Pakistanis of West Pakistan hence they will never accept democracy in Afghanistan because the Taliban is mainly a Pashtun based organization and Pashtuns are only about 42 % in Afghanistan, The Pashtuns (with ‘special people syndrome’) believe that they are better people and have right to rule Afghanistan (as Punjabi Pakistanis believed that they despite being not in majority in united Pakistan had a right to rule united Pakistan). The USA naively thought that democracy would succeed in Afghanistan (without reforming the UN regarding 4 hierarchies of democratic-secularism) hence (even after staying in Afghanistan for more than a decade and half) the USA could not ensure a government in Kabul through free & fair elections (where previous controversial election results were not announced for months and two Presidents Ghani & Abdullah took oath for office). India (the only avowed ally of the USA in the region) is also naively expecting peace settlement between Taliban & Afghan government through democracy in Afghanistan (as said by MEA Jaishankar during Indo-US joint press-briefing on July 28 also).
(3)- The military power of ‘special people syndrome’ can be defeated only by superior military power (UNPKF led by the USA) and that too only when it declaredly works for establishing the ‘liberal Wester democracy’ in such troubling countries. In a nutshell the USA will never win this cold war II unless the UN is reformed regarding 4 hierarchies of democratic-secularism along with UN mechanism to enforce secular democracy in member States of the UN as given below:-
(i)- In the UN there should be four categories of its members (A)- Countries constitutionally secular democracy like the USA, European countries, India etc (B)- Countries having only democracy but not secularism like Pakistan, Israel etc ( C)- Countries having only secularism but not democracy like China etc and (D)- Countries neither having secularism nor democracy like Iran, Saudi Arabia etc.
(ii)- There should be a stick & carrot mechanism at the UN (through voting rights to members etc) in order to encourage secular democracy in the member countries of the UN.
(iii)- There should be a UN mechanism to enforce constitutional provisions of secularism and democracy in member countries including by way of military intervention of UNPKF in erring countries. This is very important because even a constitutional secular country can succumb to communal forces as happened in India where even its Supreme Court compromised with rule-of-law (notwithstanding meaningless whimpers from USCIRF) in the Babri-masjid demolition case which caused riots and killing of thousands of innocent people, mostly Muslims. Similarly in Myanmar democracy is destroyed by military coup.
(4)- After the above mentioned reforms in the UN, the USA should ask Afghan government to adopt secular democracy by amending its constitution and then only the USA should help Afghan government in any manner. After this the USA may approach the world community to provide adequate manpower for the UNPKF and for ‘UN Election Commission’ for carrying out elections under its supervision in Afghanistan after getting the electoral list prepared (including of Afghan refugees who are presently in other countries).
(5)- In order to protect BRI and its other economic interests in Afghanistan and in its nearby region (which are coming under increasing threat which is evident from terrorist attack at Dasu project in Pakistan in which 9 Chinese were also killed in which global and local Jihadi terrorist are allegedly involved), China is bound to support all the authoritarian regimes of the region in the interest of immediately bringing political stability in the region. The USA should know that China by welcoming nine Taliban representatives has thrown its weight behind Taliban hence Prez Biden’s prediction of civil war (when he said that about 3 hundred thousand personnel in Afghan force should be enough to protect Afghan government) is going to go wrong because there will be no civil war worth the name. This Chinese support will convert the boast of Taliban into reality that ‘large numbers of security forces of Afghanistan are joining the Taliban’.
(6)- Due to BRI and otherwise the Afghan border sharing countries of Central Asia are already under influence of China hence China can easily mobilize Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to ask their ethnicities in Afghanistan to support the Taliban. As far as Iran which (after severe US-sanctions by Trump-administration ) is exporting oil to China [and Russia (after Western sanctions due to Crimea controversy) is also doing the same] hence both Iran and Russia are nowadays in Chinese camp and will do about Afghanistan whatever China would ask them to do. Pakistan (which created the Taliban and also due to the India factor) will gladly toe Chinese line for supporting the Taliban. Hence given this array, the chances of victory of ‘liberal Western democracy’ against ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ in ongoing cold war II are negligible (unless the USA gets the UN reformed as mentioned).
(7)- As a blessing in disguise in the given situation, the USA can easily count on over-smart India (which earlier did not provide manpower to the USA in Afghanistan) to now provide such adequate manpower (military, para-military and civilians) because presently the Indians (including their leaders, also of security establishment) are running helter-skelter as headless chickens in Afghanistan after (despite being economically humble country) wasting about $ 3 billion in Afghanistan (in so-called aid programs). Now Indians do not know what to do in Afghanistan in view of the immense likelihood (if not reversed by the USA) of Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan given this history of the region –
[After end of cold war I between West led by the USA v/s USSR (which resulted war between them in Afghanistan in which Pakistan helped the West in developing militant Jihadis against USSR) these militant Jihadis from Afghanistan were sent to Kashmir & in rest of India by Pakistan (which is pining to take revenge against India for 1971) which resulted in terrorist activities for more than two decades in which not only about one hundred thousand people were reportedly killed but hundreds of thousands of Kashmiri Pandits were expelled from Kashmir by terrorists. India now fears the same by the Taliban, if in power in Afghanistan].
Therefore the USA should understand that in on-going cold war II the ‘liberal Western democracy’ led by the USA would win against ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ only when the USA will get the UN reformed regarding 4 hierarchies of democratic-secularism and will get adequate manpower (military, para-military and civilians) from India (it’s only avowed ally in the region) as mentioned above.
Hem Raj Jain
(Writer is author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’ and lives in Shakopee, MN, USA )
